The 2009 Mozambican Presidential Election

The next presidential election in Mozambique is scheduled for October 28, 2009. Current president Armando Guebuza represents Frelimo, the party that has been in power since independence. The main opposition party, Renamo, is led by Afonso Dhlakama, making his fourth run at the presidency. A new political party, the MDM, has formed as an offshoot of Renamo and is led by the mayor of Beira, Daviz Simango.

Mozambicans certainly have a number of options (including several candidates from smaller parties) for the presidency. However, none of them are very good. Guebuza has been a member of Frelimo's inner circle for decades. He deserves part of the credit, as well as part of the blame, for Frelimo's past policies. In the early 1980s, Guebuza oversaw a program called Operation Production, which instituted a form of virtual forced labor as people were systematically rounded up and transported to the countryside. Guebuza was one of the four or five major figures during Frelimo's authoritarian one-party rule. In 2004, he won a presidential election that international observers did not deem to be free or fair.

Dhlakama's past is at least as troublesome as Guebuza's. He took over Renamo, a rebel group founded and funded by white racist apartheid regimes, in 1979 after the death of the original leader, Andre Matsangaissa. Under Dhlakama's leadership, Renamo was responsible for human rights violations, such as recruiting child soldiers. Dhlakama's ties to Renamo's suspicious roots and his role in the nation's civil war do not make Dhlakama the ideal presidential candidate. This is highlighted by the fact that he only received 31.7% of the vote in 2004 and has failed in his three previous attempts at the presidency.

Daviz Simango is part of a new generation of politicians. However, the mayor of Beira has his drawbacks as well. His split with Renamo is not over issues, but because of a personality clash with Dhlakama. As a result, the split may serve to marginalize the opposition in Mozambique. In this scenario, Frelimo would become a de facto one-party state, which was largely the reason for the civil war in the first place. Simango's father, Uria, was a major leader in Frelimo until he was outmaneuvered for the head of the organization after the death of Eduardo Mondlane in 1969. Frelimo labeled the elder Simango a traitor. However, the father's role should not matter towards determining the son's merits.

There is a persuasive argument asserting that it doesn't really matter who wins the presidency because the "international community" essentially makes the decisions in Mozambique. Mozambique relies heavily on aid and the president's only real power might be to attempt to direct that aid within a narrow set of possibilities. As October 28 approaches, it appears that Mozambicans will be called on to choose a candidate without a comprehensive vision for Mozambique's future or the clout to institute that vision were they to have one. The country needs a new generation of leaders devoid of the contentious connection to the civil war and free from the international community's control. (International Edition)