Thursday, March 15, 2012

2012 NCAA Tournament Predictions

The Real First Round (upsets only)
South
9 UCONN over 8 Iowa St.
10 Xavier over 7 Notre Dame
12 VCU over 5 Wichita St.
West
12 Long Beach St. over 5 New Mexico
East
10 West Virginia over 7 Gonzaga
Midwest
12 South Florida over 5 Temple
13 Ohio over 4 Michigan

Thrilling 32 (upsets only)
South
12 VCU over 4 Indiana
West
6 Murray St. over 3 Marquette
7 Florida over 2 Missouri
12 Long Beach St. over 4 Louisville
East
5 Vanderbilt over 4 Wisconsin
Midwest
7 St. Mary's over 2 Kansas
13 Ohio over 12 South Florida

Sweet 16
South
1 Kentucky over 12 VCU
3 Baylor over 2 Duke
West
1 Michigan St. over 12 Long Beach St.
6 Murray St. over 7 Florida
East
5 Vanderbilt over 1 Syracuse
2 Ohio St. over 3 Florida St.
Midwest
1 UNC over 13 Ohio
3 Georgetown over 7 St. Mary's

Elite 8
South
1 Kentucky over 3 Baylor
West
6 Murray St. over 1 Michigan St.
East
2 Ohio St. over 5 Vanderbilt
Midwest
3 Georgetown over 1 UNC

Final 4
1 Kentucky over 6 Murray St.
3 Georgetown over 2 Ohio St.

Championship
3 Georgetown over 1 Kentucky

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

NCAA Tournament Ridiculousness

The so-called first round of the NCAA Tournament involves eight teams. Sixty teams have a "bye" into the second round. Sound stupid? It is.

It all dates back to a manufactured crisis when the WAC broke into two conferences, the WAC and the Mountain West. For some reason, both conferences got automatic bids. The winners of each conference tournament could've played each other for the sole automatic bid. Or the NCAA could've reduced the number of at large bids by one. These sensible options never occurred to the NCAA.

So we got 65 teams for a few years. The NCAA saw this dreadful play-in game and said, "We want more!" So naturally, all four play-in games feature 16 seeds, right? Wrong!

This year, two 12 seeds play, two 14 seeds, and four 16 seeds. That means in one region, the 12 seeds are playing int he first round while the 13 seed gets a bye. A dare you to find any logic in that. Or how about this? Four 16 seeds have to take part int he play-in games while the other two don't. Why? I have no idea and neither does anyone else.

The "first round" has cheapened the tournament. I used to watch every game religiously until this play-in junk. In fact, it's on right now and I'm writing this post with the 76ers-Pacers game on in the background. Let's get rid of the play-in round.

Monday, March 12, 2012

Kony 2012, It's Not So Simple

By now, anyone reading this would have seen Kony 2012, a thirty minute video posted on YouTube by Invisible Children chronicling the terrorism of Joseph Kony. The video has garnered tens of millions of views thus far. It calls for the U.S. to maintain military advisers in the northern Uganda region to fight Kony's Lord Resistance Army (LRA).

The video is having a positive effect in one important regard. It is giving global attention to a local African problem, something that rarely happens. Americans should know about the world and if a simplistic, emotional video on YouTube sparks intellectual curiosity, that is an extremely good development.

But to even begin to understand the problem in northern Uganda, we must moved past Kony 2012 and learn about the region. The LRA poses numerous contradictions.The LRA purports to protect the Acholi people, the very people they abduct. The security threat posed by the LRA de-legitimizes the government while their presence fuels enormous funding of the military, the very institution that gives the government its legitimacy. For all its evil, the LRA has been willing to negotiate for peace.

The president of Uganda, Yoweri Museveni, took over power in a coup in 1986. Alice Lakwena led a rebellion based on mystical beliefs against Museveni. Lakwena, an Acholi, motivated many people from her tribe to fight against the new regime. In Uganda, politics have been tribal, and the tribe in power enjoys the spoils while the  tribes not in power must fall in line or suffer the consequences. The Acholi, who were protected and privileged under the regime of Idi Amin, suffered under Museveni. The rebellion was brutally put down by the military, a political wing of the government, in 1987.

Kony's LRA movement was a decedent of Lakwena's rebellion. The movement abducted Acholi of all ages, including children, in order to build a force large enough to protect its people. The LRA have committed heinous acts of violence. But so have the Ugandan military.

While those soldiers on the frontlines want the war to end, the military elite profit from the war. In fact, there were reports that the Ugandan budget overestimated the number of troops by 50,000. The money directed to these phantom troops supposedly fighting the LRA went into the pockets of military elites. It also must be noted that in addition to the LRA, numerous other rebel groups have taken up arms against the regime.

For the U.S. to keep military advisers, or possibly send in more American troops, to fight the LRA, we would need to work with the Ugandan government. We've seen that the military is corrupt and has violated human rights in the most horrific fashion. Scholar Aili Mari Tripp argues that Museveni's government is semi-authoritarian. Museveni gains his legitimacy from two areas: economic growth (which is dependent on foreign aid) and the fiction that his military is able to keep the peace. Any help in squashing the LRA would give Museveni more legitimacy. This would come at the expense of the Acholi.

The Acholi live in refugee camps. The government's official line is that these people have been taken out of their homes for their own safety against the LRA. But most observers believe the government has done this in order to prevent further rebellion from the Acholi.

Beginning in 2007, the LRA was willing to negotiate for peace with the Ugandan government. High level figures from both sides met in Sudan and had reached an agreement. But Kony never emerged out of the jungle to sign the agreement, likely for fear of arrest. He had been indicted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in 2005. Ironically, the ICC's indictment prevented a peace deal.

Any hope of a peace agreement ended with the military operation Lightening Thunder in 2008. The U.S. financially and technologically supported this attack. In fact, Riek Machar, Vice President of South Sudan, said that the U.S. instigated this attack and pressured the Ugandans, South Sudanese, and Congolese to go after the LRA at this point. Why? Oil. The LRA's attacks in southern Sudan were preventing the U.S. from profiting from the regions oil. In fact, oil had been discovered in Uganda as well.

Machar said that the attack against the LRA was like "disturbing a bee hive. Once you destroy the bee hive, the bees hit indiscriminately." That is what happened. The LRA redoubled its attacks in the wake of Operation Lightening Thunder and any chance for peace dissolved.

The LRA have been a murderous menace in the Congo and Uganda. But U.S. military action, as we have seen in the past, will only make things worse. Legitimizing the Ugandan government should not be a principle of U.S. policy. We must trust the Ugandans, Congolese, and South Sudanese to find a peaceful solution on their own. (more at HQT-IE)

Friday, March 09, 2012

Mid Majors

The NCAA conspires to keep mid majors out of the NCAA tournament year in and year out. As parody has overtaken men's college basketball, the NCAA selection committee refuses to acknowledge this reality. Instead, they privilege the power conference cabal that runs the sport.

A team such as Drexel is shamefully on the bubble. This is a team that won the Colonial regular season and won 19 straight games until the CAA tournament championship game. There is no way Drexel should be on the bubble; they should be solidly in with an 8 seed if there was justice.

The reality is that the best three teams in the CAA are better than the mediocre teams in the power conferences. This isn't limited to the CAA either. There are numerous mid majors this year that deserve serious consideration for the NCAA tournament as at large bids. I'd rather see great mid majors than average power conference teams because the great mid majors have earned the nod with their record.

The rating system the NCAA uses is flawed. it privileged who you beat. But just because you beat a school with a name (i.e. a school from a power conference) doesn't mean that team is any good. George Mason's defeat of VCU must be considered a better win than anything South Florida has. But because South Florida is in the Big East, they are privileged.

It's a system that desperately needs changing. Strength of schedule is a flawed statistic based on the same erroneous logic I mentioned above. it's unfair for the mid majors, for the fans, and for the sport.

Monday, March 05, 2012

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

My experience in Turkey shined some anecdotal light on Prime Minister Erdogan. There were mixed, but mostly negative opinions of him.

A carpet seller from Konya in his late 20s had a favorable view of Erdogan. His views were in the context of religious freedom in Turkey. He said that people in Turkey are free to do what they want, whether it is drinking alcohol or follow a religious course. He also lauded society's tolerance towards minorities, specifically with regards to my Jewishness.

A doctor from Izmir in her 50s felt that now was the most frightening time in Turkey because of Erdogan and the AKP. She agreed with the ruling that smoking should not be allowed indoors and the potential law change involving the drinking age being moved up to 21. However, she said some of her friends were considered that these measures are part of a wider effort of the government to assert more control over society and impose its Islamic ideas (especially on alcohol) on the country.

She criticized the Prime Minister for not helping the poor though he came from a poor family. She said the poor view Erdogan as a symbol and were not concerned with his anti-poor policies. She also accused him of giving deeds just before the election to poor people who built illegal houses in exchange for their vote. She also was critical of his conciliatory tone towards the Kurds.

Two hotel receptionists from Istanbul in their 20s were also critical of Erdogan. As did the doctor from Izmir, they noted Erdogan and his wife's extraordinary wealth. Much of it was gained by way of corruption, according to the people I talked to. A third hotel receptionist from Istanbul said that he was not a supporter of Erdogan, but that he was the most capable to run the country and realistically the only option.

Sunday, March 04, 2012

Hank Gathers

It was dark. It was cold. But I ran out to shoot my left handed free throw in honor of Hank Gathers, who died 22 years ago today. It's a tradition that I've kept for a while.

I suppose the tradition links me with my youth. Or, perhaps more accurately, it ties me to the moment when a piece of my childhood ended. My father died a month and a half before Hank. When I saw the Hank had died on television, I was beginning to understand what death meant. That person was never coming back. None of us would even see that person again. I believe that's why Hank Gathers's death has stayed with me all these years.


Wednesday, February 29, 2012

The Kurds

My impression is that the Kurds are disliked and disrespected in Turkey. I was told (by an extremely limited sample) that the Kurds were lazy and dirty. There was no objection to allowing them their own country, but the argument was that it wasn't enough for them, they wanted more. These CHP supporters also felt that AKP Prime Minister Erdogan had handled the situation with the Kurds badly, being to conciliatory. They believed the  Kurds were not as they are portrayed in the West.

The sympathetic view of the Kurds from these same CHP supporters was that they aren't given the same opportunity as other Turks, which is responsible for their bad qualities.

On the bus from Istanbul to Ankara, which was headed to the eastern city of Van, a man told me that this was a "Kurdish" bus. He complained about the smell of the bus on multiple occasions. To me, it smelled like any other bus in the world after and eight hour ride... terrible.

This month, while I was in Ankara, violence hit the southeastern portion of the country as about a dozen Kurdish rebels and two Turkish soldiers were killed in clashes. it wasn't an important news event in Turkey. It wasn't even the lead story on the news that day.

The issue with the Kurds gets directly to the heart of what it means to be a Turkish citizen. Can people who aren't ethnic Turks or are non-Muslims be enjoy legal, social, and economic equality as full citizens? It's been an issue that has persisted since the founding of modern Turkey. The inability of the state to allow minority to coexist has resulted not only in the violence from and against Kurds over the past 30 years, but also in the genocide of the Armenians and in other violence against minorities.

Yet, there is a desire among the Turks that I encountered to be perceived as tolerant of minorities. People are free to be who they are, or so the line goes. But the reality is far more complicated.

Monday, February 27, 2012

The Price of Turkey

In Turkey, books and gas are extremely expensive. That results in limited information for the Turkish people. Books, especially foreign language books, fall outside the price range of the average citizen. They are more expensive than in the United States even though Turkey's GDP per capita is significantly lower than the U.S.'s.

Relatedly, Turkish news focuses only on news in Turkey. There is very little foreign news. This shapes Turkish people's worldview in powerful way. Turkey borders Iraq and Syria, yet the violence in those countries seems like a world away. Even violence in southeastern Turkey felt as if it was in a different country.

Gas costs about 3.70TL per liter. That means it's roughly $8.25 a gallon. Again, Turks make less than the average American who pays about $3.70 a gallon right now. The price of owning a car is also far more expensive than it is in America. The result is that Turks do not have the freedom to travel within their own country that Americans possess. This is part of the reason why southeastern Turkey is so divided from central Anatolia and farther west. The other reason is ethnicity. The southeast is home to the Kurds.

Friday, February 24, 2012

Istanbul Home

On Wednesday night, I went out with the two receptionists again. The driver began racing in his ten year old car despite my objections. He confidently proclaimed, "I know the racers on the road. I know the tricks. If I had a better car, I would win." Later he asserted, "I know how to crash." He said no one would get hurt and that during the would-be crash he was in control. That's what I wanted for my last night in Turkey, a car accident.

But we didn't crash. Instead, we ate at a kabob place along a street filled with them in Aksaray. It was delicious, then I went back to the hotel to sleep for my flight home.

The trip home was long and tiring. On the metro, I smiled at a baby who smiled back, much to the delight of another man watching us. The Delta flight didn't have tvs in each seat. Instead, we all had to watch the same thing. I hadn't been on an international flight like that in years.

After the flight was over, the man in front of me, a middle aged man with graying hair, tattoos covering his freakishly muscular arms, and twirl earrings advised me to watch my head as he lowered the overhead bin. The bin stopped 8 inches above my head. The man looked embarrassed with his miscalculation. I said, "It's never an issue." A minute later, he bumped his head on the bin looking for the cell phone he had just dropped.

I was able to skip most of the massive line at passport control because of my connecting flight. The passport officials flirted endlessly with young women getting their passports stamped, holding up the line. When it was my turn, the man didn't say one word to me. I laughed as I left.

As I got my bag, a tall black airport official asked a confused little Filipino woman where she was going. The woman ignored him. He joked with me, "That's what I get for trying to help someone. Did she think I was going to rob her? There are 300 federal agents here." He then happily told me where to go.

After going the wrong way on the Air Train, I righted myself and began helping non-U.S. visitors who asked for my help. It felt good to help people after so many people in Turkey had helped me. Still, I wasn't walking for an hour and half to bring someone to their destination. Vague points were the extent of my help. In America, especially in New York, that makes me something of another Gandhi.

The man sitting next to me on the puddle jumper to DC was too tall and took over much of my area. It was frustrating and the trip was getting to me, although the man was apologetic. Finally, I made it home.

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

The Bird and the Belgian Waffle

Last night, two of the hotel receptionists, including my NBA-loving friend, took me out. Both are licensed tour guides and they gave me a free drive through the city. They showed me some of the more posh sites in European Istanbul, inlcluding a Starbucks on the Bosphorus that had the nicest room I've ever been in.

At one point, the police pulled us over because we're young looking and it was late. That was the extent of their reasoning. The policeman with buggy eyes and a small face was at least nice. He took the two guys' identity cards to see if they were wanted. Being American, I wasn't checked.

Then we went to a strand of food stalls where the vendors holler at you as you pass. The one guy was friends with a couple of the vendors and we were able to get the works for our Belgian Waffles and baked poatatoes. Basically, they stuff everything known to man in them and fold the waffle over. It's unbelievably good. And it was an absolutely wonderful little tour that I won't soon forget. It was all the more special because gas is so expensive here.

Today, I went to Asian Istanbul. I've been in Istanbul too long. While getting there, I helped an old Turkish lady buy her tram token. Coming home, I helped another old Turkish lady buy her ferry ticket. After taking the ferry myself to the Asian side, I walked the coast from Uskudar to Karakoy.

If I ever take you to the smooth rocks on the Asian side as the Bosphorus twinkles in the sunset, be warned, I'm getting ready to propose. And don't steal my idea you assholes. Later, a bird shat on my head. A direct hit. I rushed to a bathroom and put hand soap and water in my hair.

I've had an amazing, inspiring, and enlightening trip. It's all I could've asked for.