We will know the running mates of the two nominees soon enough. But for those who can't wait, it's time for a little speculation. Things have changed since the last time I wrote about potential vice presidents.
The three names most associated with the position of Barack Obama's running mate are Tim Kaine, Evan Bayh, and Joe Biden. Tim Kaine is a governor from Virginia. He would be a good choice because, as a governor, he balances the ticket. He is popular in a swing state that may represent a political shift in the north-south divide along the east coast. Winning Florida or Ohio seems to be a tough task for Obama, in which case, Virginia becomes all the more important.
Evan Bayh is a senator from Indiana. His greatest asset is that he was a strong backer of Hillary Clinton. He also has foreign policy experience, but has a youthful appearance, which plays into Obama's theme of change.
Joe Biden would be a potentially disastrous choice. He carries a lot of baggage, some of which contains other people's speeches and the rest has various slurs directed at various minority groups. During one debate, Obama stuck his neck out to defend Biden, claiming that the old man doesn't have a bigoted bone in his body. Unfortunately for Biden, just because Obama doesn't believe he's bigoted, doesn't mean others won't. Me, for example.
Also, Biden has a monstrously stupid and dangerous plan for Iraq. He calls for a decentralized government with three semi-autonomous regions based on ethno-sectarian differences. The problem with the plan is that Iraq isn't divided into three nice and neat sections. The plan would create movement in the country that would result in extreme violence similar to that during the partition of India when a million people died. In addition, the minorities that stayed in the "wrong" region would be in a very precarious position. After the first and second waves of violence ended, you would essentially have three enemy groups within the same county. So, the divisions would only serve to exacerbate the ethno-sectarian tensions in Iraq, to say the least.
Of these three, Obama should pick Governor Kaine. He should not pick Joe Biden under any circumstance!
John McCain's trio of possibilities seems to be whittled down to Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, and Tom Ridge. Mitt Romney was the governor of Massachusetts. He would be an awful selection. During the campaign, the two presidential competitors brought out the worst in each other. Romney is prone to gaffes, doesn't truly appease radical conservatives, and doesn't come across as all that likable. He's the Spiro Agnew of this generation.
Tim Pawlenty is the governor of Minnesota. In some ways, he's a trap for McCain. It might appear that he represents change and youth that would offset McCain's long and distinguished career in Washington, which is a nice way of saying that McCain is old and represents the establishment. However, to quote Johnny Mathis, chances are Pawlenty isn't a skilled enough politician to overtake Obama in the youthful change department or else Pawlenty would probably be the Republican nominee for president. Instead, he might be this generation's Dan Quayle.
Tom Ridge is a former governor of Pennsylvania and a former secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. Of these three, I believe he's the best option. In theory, he and McCain would be a superb duo on foreign policy and national security. In theory. Ridge is best known for his color coded alert system. I don't know how effective it was, but I know whenever we got to terror alert level orange, I could not contain my bowels. While Ridge is clearly a conservative, he is also pro-choice. If McCain wants to remove the stigma that he's kowtowed to the administration over the past 8 years, and prove that he's a maverick, selecting Ridge would be wise choice. In a sense, McCain would be saying, win or lose, we're doing this my way. Americans admire that.
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