Saturday, December 25, 2010

Kevin Durant

As of yet, I haven't ranked Kevin Durant as one of the NBA's top ten players. It's possible that he could crack the list this season. Regardless, I believe that he will challenge LeBron James and Dwight Howard as the best player in the league in just a matter of a few years.

Durant is the best scorer in the league. He led the league in scoring average last season and is doing it again this season. He also has extraordinary ball handling skills for his size. He already has those attributes even though he's only 22 years old. It's truly remarkable.

But one interesting habit of the sports media in recent years involves building up a young player beyond his current ability. We dream of what Durant could be and, in the process, overlook his current faults. Then, once he achieves greatness, he will be torn down mercilessly. The arc of media attention LeBron James has received (independent of his move to Miami) is instructive.

Durant's flaws are excusable because he's so young, but they do show that he is not yet a top player. He's a below average on-ball defender. He does accumulate about one steal and one block per game, but we know those statistics are not indicative of the quality of a player's defensive ability. Durant had a good brief stretch guarding Kobe Bryant in the playoffs and his length could eventually make him a lockdown defender if he wants to be. But he's a long way off now. In addition, he's an average rebounder right now at about 6 and half a game.

His biggest deficiency is directly making his teammates better. Of course, being such a prolific scorer will draw attention and give his teammates better shots. But he's not yet able to make the right pass at the right time. He hasn't figured out when to defer and when to take over. He's not a particularly proficient passer either. He has improved his assist to turnover ratio every year in the league, but it's still below one, which, frankly, is terrible for someone who has the ball in his hands so often.

Durant is the best player on a good young team. I always believe your regular season gets you in the discussion for top players, but the playoffs determine your rank. Durant has led his team to one playoff appearance. They were an 8 seed and they lost 4-2in the first round. That hardly holds up against other top players' resumes. You might argue, well, he's young. Give him time. I totally agree. In fact, that's exactly the point.

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