Why Stay in Iraq?

Some have argued that if U.S. forces withdraw from Iraq, violent chaos will ensue. The reasons for this belief are valid. This leads some to then contend that the United States must keep troops in Iraq for possibly several decades.

However, it is not clear how the situation in Iraq will be different in 10, 20, or 50 years. The U.S. has maintained a short-term strategy, which desperately attempts to curtail sectarian and anti-American violence and fight al Qaeda. But sustained stability will not come with the present strategy. As a result, unless something drastically changes, violent chaos will follow America's withdrawal no matter when that happens to be.

Even the most optimistic American general does not believe a political breakthrough is imminent. The government is largely filled with Shia nationalists. The Iraqi National Police force sometimes poses as a death squad. The military is majority Shia. The insurgency is typically Sunni. As of now, Iraqis identify with their sect and tribe above their nationality. The U.S. has funded and empowered both sides. Perhaps the major group which has benefited the most from the U.S. occupation in Iraq is the Kurds.

Some are concerned that if the U.S. leaves Iraq, Iran might exert its influence in Iraq. It has already happened. Whenever the U.S. withdraws, Iranian influence in Iraq will rise, whether that's now or in 50 years. The key is to engage the Iranians diplomatically. Only a Sunni or Kurdish dictator will curtail Iran's impact in Iraq and that could result in another war between the two neighbors.

A struggle for power in Iraq will occur as soon as the Americans leave, unless a new political strategy immerges. It will result in even more devastation for the Iraqi people. The war up until now and the war to come must be blamed on the U.S. invasion. That the U.S. will be able to ever find a political or military settlement in Iraq is highly dubious, not least because the U.S. was the invading and occupying force that caused the current predicament.

The question becomes: Why stay in Iraq for another day, let alone 50 years if a withdrawal will cause the same result regardless of when it takes place? Why lose American lives and resources if nothing will fundamentally change? The answer is not: In the hopes that the U.S. might steer Iraq into the least bad political settlement, because the first six years of the war have shown the U.S. is not even capable of that. (International Edition)