Mugabe, the Generals, and Negotiations

The New York Times is reporting that top generals are urging Zimbabwean leader Robert Mugabe to withdraw from a power-sharing deal with opposition president Morgan Tsvangirai to save themselves from facing prosecution for their roles in the pre-election violence perpetrated against Tsvangirai's MDC supporters earlier this spring. However, the Times does not mention that Mugabe has protected his generals from prosecution for many years, just as the generals have helped keep Mugabe in power.

Mugabe has orchestrated military forays into Congo and Mozambique among other places. The result, while complex, for our purposes has resulted in plunder, leading to wealth for some Zimbabwean generals at the expense of the nation's people. Since coming to power, Mugabe challenged and exceeded Zambian President Kenneth Kaunda's role as the major player, other than South Africa, in the region. Mugabe was able to convince much of the world that he was a force for stabilization in the region. That is until his controversial plan to seize land from Zimbabwe's white population created an uproar in the West.

Fear of prosecution is nothing new for Zimbabwe's generals. Neither is pre-election violence on behalf of Mugabe. But this year saw pre-election violence reach an extreme. Even this level of violence has precedent in Zimbabwe as government brigades massacred its own civilians in the Matebelelands in the 1980s. That forced ZAPU leader, Joshua Nkomo, to enter into an agreement with Mugabe, where Nkomo lost all discernable power.

Tsvangirai has been cautious in entering negotiations with Mugabe and firm in his demands. But Tsvangirai has been unclear as to his stance on prosecuting the generals. In the past, he has called for a Truth and Justice commission, going one step further than South Africa's Truth and Reconciliation commission, by requiring justice to be served. At another juncture, Tsvangirai wanted to leave previous indiscretions in the past. This year, he has offered differing views on whether or not the generals should be prosecuted based on the ebbs and flows of violence against his supporters. Regardless of the generals' fate, the citizens of Zimbabwe have suffered.

Mugabe's rule can now only be legitimized by Tsvangirai. Tsvangirai can only earn some of the responsibility that he rightfully deserves with the help of Mugabe. But there is a major player lurking behind the scenes. Emmerson Mnangagwa ran Mugabe's campaign of terror and was considered as a possible successor to Mugabe when it was thought Mugabe could not hold onto power over the summer. Mnangagwa not only represents the violent autocracy of the history of rule in Zimbabwe, but could pose a threat to Mugabe. Mugabe would be wise to rest his political legacy on the shoulders of his arch-enemy, Tsvangirai, and not his ally, Mnangagwa, if he wants to keep any semblance of power and be thought of as anything more than a demagogue.
(International Affairs Edition)