The Trap of Unity

Later today, Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai will sign an agreement to create a government of unity in Zimbabwe. Mugabe has ruled the country since independence 28 years ago. Tsvangirai defeated him in the presidential election in March. While Tsvangirai won a majority, Mugabe's government rigged the vote so that Tsvangirai received less than the required 50%, although he still out gained Mugabe. After a wave of violence perpetrated by Mugabe's followers, ZANU-PF, against Tsvangirai's MDC, the latter was forced to drop out of the runoff campaign. Mugabe stole the sham vote to retain control of the country.

Robert Mugabe has been down this road before. The war of liberation was fought primarily by two different factions. Mugabe's ZANU (whose military wing was ZANLA) and ZAPU (ZIPRA was the name of its military wing), led by Joshua Nkomo, fluctuated between being allies and rivals, despite always having the same broader goal of independence.

After independence was won, Mugabe and his party dominated the elections of 1980, a bitter defeat for Nkomo and ZAPU. Shortly after the birth of Zimbabwe, the government-led Fifth Brigade stormed into the Matabelelands, the home area of Nkomo, to allegedly put down a rebellion. In reality, the government massacred thousands of people, mostly civilians. This massacre forced Nkomo and ZAPU to enter into an agreement with Mugabe to form a government of unity in 1987. The agreement effectively ended any political clout Nkomo could have hoped for and marginalized ZAPU.

While the particulars of this latest agreement are unknown at this time, Tsvangirai has to be careful not to fall into the same trap. He has some advantages. Nkomo led a party largely confined to the Matabelelands and one whose followers were predominantly members of the Ndebele tribe. Tsvangirai's MDC is home to people of different races, tribes, classes, occupations, and political outlooks. It is a true coalition.

Regardless of the intricacies of the agreement, there are powerful military leaders who do not want to see Mugabe stripped of power because of their illegal actions during the war in Congo in the late 1990s. Mugabe could sign away power and then grab it right back.

The other fear this agreement presents is its impact on the role of democracy in Zimbabwe. Even though Tsvangirai won enough votes to legitimately claim the presidency, what message does it send to the Zimbabwean people if he gains power through an agreement with Mugabe, rather than by the ballot? To actually maneuver his way to power, Tsvangirai may have to border on the autocratic in order to forcibly remove Mugabe, a man who will not relinquish his position easily. In this scenario, it is almost irrelevant who is the leader because democracy will be denied its rightful place in Zimbabwean politics.

The situation has put Tsvangirai in a terrible position. He must be concerned with the welfare of his people and the safety of his party members. But he must also not sign away the most powerful opposition Mugabe has ever faced. He needs to promote democracy above all else, but he knows that Mugabe will not willingly walk away from presidential power. It is a tenuous place to be for Tsvangirai, but his actions will influence the direction of his people for years to come.
(International Affairs Edition)