Thursday, March 17, 2005

NCAA Tournament Predictions

Man, Woman, and Child am I excited about the tournament. First a few words to those filling out your brackets. If you picked the better seed almost every time, you are a punk. If you've got three #1 seeds or more in the Final Four, you should be shot. Three #1 seeds in the Final Four has happened once since they started seeding the teams. If you have zero teams over a #5 seed in the Sweet Sixteen, you should be fed the Taco Bell until the chronic explosive diarrhea turns your stools red. Most of yall don't know shit about shit, so just shut the fuck up.

Having said that, I'm not a prophet. I'm just a man with a plan in the know. So here we go.

But before we move on to my predictions, a few more words on tournament related issues. I have never watched the play-in game. As far as I'm concerned, there are only 64 teams in the field, sorry Alabama A&M. I don't know what this Syracuse Region bullshit is about, I'm gonna call the regions by their proper titles, such as East. All of the previews I've read deal with past tournaments. The history of certain teams, and traditional results from particular seeds and the like. What bullshit! Cincinnati's 1997 team's tournament performance won't impact this year's games. At least they have the same coach, I've seen even more ridiculous predictors. Fox Sports is largely to blame. Of course, I posted this at a point where it's too late for you bums to steal my picks. This is just a heads up to the ignorant.

On to the Predictions. Basically, I'm just giving you the upsets.

Midwest (The Predictable Region)
I only have 2 upsets in this entire region. UAB in the first round: They're tournament tested, with last year's run. They have many of the same players back, unlike Cincinnati, which actually has no players that played on their 1997 team back this year. I don't know much about LSU except that they choked against Kentucky in the SEC tournament, the very team that UAB upset in last year's second round.

Alabama over BC in the second round. BC got screwed with their #4 seed, but I made a promise to myself mid-season, that I'd pick Alabama, so a man's gotta do what a man's gotta do.

Illinois will come out of this region. Certainly the virtual home court advantage helps, but so does three guys who would be stars on nearly every other college team in the United States. You gotta like Oklahoma State, they have experience, senior leadership, post play, and the clutch John Lucas, but Illinois is much the same regarding the intangibles, and their guard play will put them over the top.

West (Where all Hell breaks loose)

First Round:
GW over Georgia Tech. BJ Elder is overrated. They can win without him and they can lose with him. People forget the real difference between this year's team and last year's finals loser. They no longer have the graduated Marvin Lewis, a Cabin John Middle School alum. (Remember me, I was the short Jew. Never mind. The one who was a pretty decent bball player. Eh, forget it). He started last year, allowing for Tech's other guards to produce without as much pressure as they have this year. The Atlantic 10 has had a down year, with the biggest story being the injury of John Bryant of St. Joseph's who sucks. But GW has been the A-10 team that has faced tough competition and won this season.

Pittsburgh over Pacific

Second Round:
I love Washington, especially Nate Robinson. But Pittsburgh will win. They are a very streaky team. They can beat anyone in the nation with their experienced physical play, or lose to numerous bad teams when they aren't on their game. They can make the Final Four or lose in the First Round to a good Pacific team. But I'm expecting Krauser, Troutman, and the fellas to understand the magnitude of the tournament and rise to their basketball plateau.

West Virginia over Wake Forest. For all of you that picked 3 ACC Final Four Teams, you're all morons. Wake is a nice team that can falter at any time. If West Virginia is making their threes, it won't even be close.

Texas Tech over Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are a good team, no doubt. But the tournament is a one and done situation, and the matchups are very important. In this case, Texas Tech is too physical for Gonzaga to overcome.

I've got Louisville coming out of this region. The reason is that they are a top team nationally. They should have been a #1 or #2 and in my bracket they don't have many obstacles in their path. Garcia and Dean will be too much for the teams they'll face.


East (Oh, Cruel Fate)
First Round
NC State over Charlotte.

I've got Minnesota over Iowa State because I picked Iowa State to win it all in 2001 when 15 seed Hampton beat them in the first round. I will never forgive! (This probably doesn't help my credibility).

Oakland over UNC? Maybe, a # 16 seed will beat a #1 seed for the first time either this year or next, mark my words, unless I'm wrong.

Second Round
Villanova over Florida. Florida is hot, so this is a tough one. Judging by their play all season long, they shouldn't be a #4 seed, and they're not better than Villanova. Randy Foye is the man, and NBA superstar Ray Allen has come back to school, stayed in the Big East, and adopted the not very convincing pseudonym of Allan Ray. Oh, that's a different guy? Never mind. New Mexico is actually a threat to beat the Wildcats in round 1, on the back of Danny Granger, but I'm sticking with Villanova.

NC State over UCONN. Everyone seems to have fallen in love with picking the defending champs. But unless Ben Gordon and Emeka Okafor, or even Talik Brown (hey, they'll settle for Talik!) comes back to play for the Huskies, they're doomed. The ugliest duo in the land, Charlie Villanueva and Josh Boone will have they're hands full. The real trouble for the dogs will come from NC State's perimeter forwards. Julius Hodge is a guy who can put the Wolfpack on his back and carry them, maybe even to the Final Four, but at least past the overrated Huskies.

I've got Kansas from this region. They'll meet their old coach Roy Williams and his UNC Tar Heels in the regional final. Of course, Williams abandoned his team after they lost in the finals against Syracuse a few years ago. As long as Langford is healthy, Wayne Simien is on his game, and Aaron Miles holds his own against Felton, Kansas will defeat the uninspired and arrogant Tar Heels.

South (I'll show you what's up)
First Round
Mississippi State over Stanford. Where is Stanford's best player? He'll be watching with the rest of us. He may be intelligent enough to get into Stanford and have a much better chance at being successful than me, but where are you now pretty boy? I ain't afraid of you. How bout I pull out your teeth and shove them up your ass? Would you like that? Didn't think so.

Old Dominion over Michigan State. Besides being from the same conference as George Mason, (Colonial!) ODU has only 5 losses all year. I'm a bit concerned about they're lack of a clear-cut go to player, but it may actually work to their advantage against a good coach in Tom Izzo. Izzo can't focus on just one player defensively. I've seen Michigan State a few times this season and I've never been impressed. They have a weak team this year that is overrated and were given a tough matchup in round one.

Niagra over Oklahoma. I saw this upset the minute they announced this game. Only people who actually go to Niagra predicted this one faster than me. Oklahoma is not a very consistent team. Niagra is a high powered offense with Mendez as their anchor. As long as Niagra can gain the tempo they'll win the game. Watch to see if the score is high or low, and you'll know who'll win this one.

Sweet Sixteen
Syracuse over Duke. Duke is not the #1 seed of old. They do not have one of the top four teams by far this year. They are simply one of the top twenty teams, who are all fairly similar talent-wise. Watching Jim Boeheim talk about his Syracuse team, I wasn't sure he was all that confident that they could win it all this year. It will rely on the Orange's young guys. Another big question is whether Billy Edelin will see some run or not. He is the type of player that is perfect for the tournament. He might not produce big every night, but he can give you those one or two unsung performances that every tournament run needs.

I've got Syracuse beating Kentucky in this region. Kentucky has shown a propensity to lose big games this season. I don't see a defensive answer to McNamara from the Wildcats, and probably not for Hakim Warrick either.

Final Four
Illinois over Louisville. Illinois is just the better team. This should be a fun one to watch.

Kansas over Syracuse. I saw the doubt in Boeheim's eyes and heard it in his voice. This game will feature those doubts coming into fruition. Kansas' talent will just be too much.

Finals
Illinois over Kansas. Of course, after Roy Williams left Kansas for UNC, Illinois coach Bill Self took the Kansas job. Illinois will have their revenge, leaving only Southern Illinois without their revenge against Bruce Webber, the current Illini coach. Again, the more talented team will prevail. Kansas was able to keep it together this long, but the bottom will fall out and a team with just one loss all year will win it all.

And there it is, a bracket with some guts!

The tournament will start in about nine hours, I can't wait!!

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